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wind estimation
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weekender01



Joined: 08 Sep 2009
Posts: 12
Location: Roural NY

PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:27 pm    Post subject: wind estimation Reply with quote

im looking for a way to acuratly estimate wind at a distance.
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SRTS1



Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Posts: 2125
Location: Los Angeles

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 1:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look up "How to read Mirage" Wink
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natdscott
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Joined: 03 Apr 2006
Posts: 1977
Location: Indiana

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 2:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SRTS1 wrote:
Look up "How to read Mirage" Wink


Actually, no. I don't find that Mirage is a good way to judge wind speed for two reasons: (A) it's no good past 12 mph transverse wind because it flatlines, and (B) it takes a LOT more experience (years) to determine actual speed from mirage alone.

What mirage is excellent for is determining CHANGES in wind vector, provided the total transverse component of the vector does not exceed 11 mph or so. IE: with mirage, you can see up to 11 mph at 3/9 o'clock before it flatines, but with a 7 o'clock wind, you can see mirage at much higher wind velocity because the TRANSVERSE component of the wind vector is effectively less.

Determine wind value and direction using natural indicators (leaves, branches, sand, papers, trash, snow) or a wind meter if you are at short range. If mirage is good and transverse wind is under 10-11 mph, corroborate your other estimate with mirage, and then use your best guess on the sights. Watch the mirage changes in your spotter as you approach the execution of the shot. When it matches (or is quickly heading in that direction) what it was when you estimated sight setting, get on the trigger and send the round.

-Nate
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SRTS1



Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Posts: 2125
Location: Los Angeles

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

natdscott wrote:
SRTS1 wrote:
Look up "How to read Mirage" Wink


Actually, no. I don't find that Mirage is a good way to judge wind speed for two reasons: (A) it's no good past 12 mph transverse wind because it flatlines,


Yes, it does flatten out, but you can still see the roils moving either left or right, provided you have a good spotting scope or a good rifle scope with a parallax adjust. In this situation, select an additional object that is to the right or left of your target. (Hopefully you have already put them on your range card) As the mirage moves left or right according to the wind direction, adjust your focus/parallax so that the mirage AT the target is in focus. Track an are of mirage roil as it moves from the near object to the target. (Try this a few times and you will see exactly what Im talking about) Track the roils and estimate the time it takes to get from the object to the target. (Having this distance between the targets prior to shooting is helpful, if you are on a callout, range the distance between you and the target (a) and you and the object (b), then use the Pythagorean theorem to find the distance between the two (c) or hypotenuse a2+b2=c2) Once you have this distance you can find velocity by using a conversion table IE Say your target is 30 feet from a nearby object on the same plane. The roil in the mirage takes about 1 second to pass between the object and your target. Your transverse wind speed is 20.4 MPH.

I know it sounds complicated, but all you need is a scientific calculator, a decent rangefinder and a good scope. We have been using this method with great success for years and after a few tries, you will get the hang of it.
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GWHLP



Joined: 24 Aug 2009
Posts: 368
Location: Cabinet Mountains, Montana

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

experience. no better way exists. get out on those nasty days and shoot in the wind. watch what the trees are doing, watch the grass, watch the flags downrange (if you are at a range), take note how the wind feels on your face. Pay close attention to detail at what the wind is doing to your surroundings. With time you'll develop a good sense of calling windage.
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proneshooter



Joined: 16 May 2010
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:12 am    Post subject: Re: wind estimation Reply with quote

weekender01 wrote:
im looking for a way to acuratly estimate wind at a distance.

How do you get to Carnegie Hall?
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Rob01



Joined: 23 Feb 2006
Posts: 2577
Location: CT

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GWHLP wrote:
experience. no better way exists. get out on those nasty days and shoot in the wind. watch what the trees are doing, watch the grass, watch the flags downrange (if you are at a range), take note how the wind feels on your face. Pay close attention to detail at what the wind is doing to your surroundings. With time you'll develop a good sense of calling windage.


Bingo. No easy way to read wind. I don't have good winds at my practice ranges so it's the toughest thing I have to do at matches.
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jrob



Joined: 30 Aug 2009
Posts: 443
Location: NW Montana

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GWHLP wrote:
experience. no better way exists. get out on those nasty days and shoot in the wind. watch what the trees are doing, watch the grass, watch the flags downrange (if you are at a range), take note how the wind feels on your face. Pay close attention to detail at what the wind is doing to your surroundings. With time you'll develop a good sense of calling windage.


I shot the LR event at Augustis Ranch this weekend and I suck at wind. But sitting behind other shooters, looking through a spotting scope while an experienced spotter made the wind calls was invaluable experience. I picked up a lot quickly, and by the end of the weekend was making repeatable simple calls.

Extra credit calls are when you're shooting down a canyon that has several side canyons feeding, each making their contribution to the mess. Then add ELR where the round actually exits ground wind and gets up into the next layer of air, where God knows what is going on... well, yeah. Experience.

BTW, I did watch Joe Starnes put three rounds in less than 20" at 2950 yds. with his 375CT in a swirling 12-15 mph wind that changed directions at least twice between firing station and target. 1st round was a cold bore hit, so it CAN be done. Wink

John
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the m700 project



Joined: 28 Nov 2007
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Location: Holmdel NJ

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kestrels are pretty good at this Wink
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jrob



Joined: 30 Aug 2009
Posts: 443
Location: NW Montana

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the m700 project wrote:
Kestrels are pretty good at this Wink


I used to think I really wanted one. I found out this weekend that they're virtually useless for the kind of shooting I want to do.

Consider engaging a steel plate at 1200 yds. The wind at station is 15mph from 5 0'clock, but at 500 yds. it's switched to a 20mph full value r-l, at 750 yds it's switched to a 1/4 value l-r and at the target there is no wind. How valuable is it to know that the wind at station is 15mph? Then take into account that at really long ranges the bullets enters a completely different airstream that's unaffected by topography (well, not as much).

For a 1000 yd. golf course with wind flags, a Kestrel is probably not a bad thing to own. In the real world, you're going to have to learn how to read.

Again, I'm NOT an expert, but I can see where I'm going and what I need to learn. A Kestrel would only help me for station pressure and I can get that a lot cheaper in other ways.

John
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the m700 project



Joined: 28 Nov 2007
Posts: 2380
Location: Holmdel NJ

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agreed but they give you a good idea where to start. If your gusting 30mph by you theres a good chance without wind blockage its pretty close within a a few mph, depending of course on the terrain, at the target. If you can learn to read the terrain, not saying i can, you can tell what the terrain will change the wind from you to the target to an extent.
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sniper762



Joined: 25 Apr 2009
Posts: 225
Location: north carolina

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A combination of a wind meter, mirage, flags (if present) and/or wind effects on trees, grass, loose foilage, etc.
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natdscott
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Joined: 03 Apr 2006
Posts: 1977
Location: Indiana

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sniper762 wrote:
A combination...


Best yet.

-Nate
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Augustis



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Posts: 21
Location: Montana

PostPosted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It has been our experience that wind meters are all but worthless to us, so we do not use them in the course of our on demand engagements. For those that do not know me, I believe myself to be a pretty fair spotter - wind doper, with that said, your best bet to learn this craft is to spend a fair amount of time on heavy glass watching bullets being sent down range.

After all, every engagement (bullet sent down range) is the very best teacher in life. Jrob is correct, the more skilled shooters you have the opportunity to observe, in conjunction with skilled spotters, calling corrections while you watch the down range effects on bullet flight in these field conditions will lesson the learning curve in this area.

Technology is not always the answer IMO, there is no magic pill... even though everyone seems to be continually seeking some advantage from technology to lesson the skill set at the operator level. At the end of the day there is only dedication & the investment of our valuable time to develop field practical shooting & observation skills. For those that have met me, I am sure you have heard this before, "The harder we work, the luckier we get", & either Joe and I are very lucky, or we have collectively worked very hard to develop these marksmanship skill sets that we demonstrate (by example) at our weekend seminars & data development events hosted at our facility. Its hard to argue with our proven results, but of course your millage may vary... What we try to promote is to learn, or develop the skill to do more with less.

Aug - AR Inc.
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Last edited by Augustis on Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:24 pm; edited 2 times in total
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jrob



Joined: 30 Aug 2009
Posts: 443
Location: NW Montana

PostPosted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrob wrote:
BTW, I did watch Joe Starnes put three rounds in less than 20" at 2950 yds. with his 375CT in a swirling 12-15 mph wind that changed directions at least twice between firing station and target. 1st round was a cold bore hit, so it CAN be done. Wink


Augustis (from the above post) made the wind calls for these shots. Both he and Joe pulled firing solutions for a variety of rifles and calibers in varying wind conditions, from their heads, on demand. We all had elevation guestimates from JBM or Exbal, but they read and called wind for us most of the time so we could get a feel for what we were looking for. Most shots were on target by the second if not the first. Amazing.

After watching this all weekend, I'm convinced that there is no shortcut. This is truly an art, and like any other skill-based endeavor it requires time and patience, combined with the right environment and good teachers.

I can't think of a better opportunity to learn and practice these skills than at one of the events Augustis hosts at his ranch northwest of Billings. If this sounds like a commercial advertisement, I suppose it is, except I'm not affiliated with them at all. Other than the connection that comes from being around really great people and being passionate about what they are trying to teach. I've been shooting for close to 40 years and probably learned as much in 2 days as the rest of the 40 years.

If you live anywhere near Montana, you should make it to one of these weekends. $45/day for this level of instruction in a hands-on field workshop, is a steal.

Next date is July 17-18

Interested? email: augustisranch@aol.com

John
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"Pray for me cause I have lost my faith in holy wars... Will I learn what's truly sacred?
Will I redeem my soul? Will truth set me free?" - Sharon den Adel
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